To really get my point across here we are going to withhold the names of the players until the end of this article. In the mean time we will simply refer to these three players as players as player A, B and C.
In 2012 player had 5,177 total passing yards. Player B had 4,903 passing yards and player C had 4,018 total passing yards on the year. (There is a reason he is listed as player C, more on that later)
In 2012 Player A averaged 324 passing yards per game. Players B was close behind him averaging 306 passing yards per game and player C averaged 268 passing yards per game.
When it comes to fantasy football you want guys that not only have skills but also have a fair amount of touches/opportunities to use those skills. Without opportunity, skills are squandered into fantasy obscurity (See: Stewart, Jonathan) In the case of quarterback you want players that have a ton of pass attempts in order to maximize their chances at fantasy glory;
In 2012 player A had 670 pass attempts. Player B had 648 pass attempts and Player C had 565 pass attempts.
With those pass attempts in mind; player B had the best completion percentage with a 65.6 success rate. Player A was next at 63 percent. Player C wasn’t too far behind with a 61.1 percent completion rate.
The major difference with these 3 players would be touchdowns which we all know can vary from year to year depending on a number of factors (Matthew Stafford went from 41 touchdowns down to 20 touchdowns from 2011 to 2012!) Player A led the pack with 43 touchdown passes. Player B comes in second with 28 touchdown passes and Player C brought up the rear with 22 total passing touchdowns. I do realize these numbers are somewhat far apart but believe me, we’ll get to that.
The final stat is rather important as is usually pertains to negative points in standard fantasy football leagues; interceptions. There may be a direct correlation between pass attempts and interceptions but player C led this category with 15 interceptions in 2012. Players A and B tied with 19 interceptions a piece in 2012.
Now I know that is a lot of data to take in at once so let’s make it simple with league rankings this time;
2012 Passing yards
Player A – 1st in the league
Player B – 3rd in the league
Player C – 10th in the league
2012 Passing yards per game
Player A – 1st in the league
Player B – 3rd in the league
Player C – 9th in the league
2012 Pass attempts
Player A – 2nd in the league
Player B – 3rd in the league
Player C – 8th in the league
2012 Completion percentage
Player A – 10th in the league
Player B – 5th in the league
Player C – 14th in the league
2012 Passing touchdowns
Player A – 1st in the league
Player B – 6th in the league
Player C – 15th in the league
2012 Interceptions
Player A – tied for 1st in the league (aka the most interceptions thrown by a quarterback in 2012)
Player B – tied for 1st in the league
Player C – tied for 12th in the league with 3 other quarterbacks
If you haven’t already figured it out;
Player A – Drew Brees
Player B – Tony Romo
Player C – Carson Palmer
Now take a close look at those numbers and more importantly those rankings. Touchdowns aside Tony Romo is not far behind Drew Brees in a good number of those statistical categories even besting Drew Brees in completion percentage. It is true that Drew Brees had a good number of touchdown passes compared to Tony Romo but stayed focused on the point of this article; fantasy football draft value. In order to even think about getting Drew Brees as your starting fantasy quarterback you are going to
have to grab him before the 4th round in almost every standard fantasy football league. In comparison Tony Romo is currently going as late as the 7th round in mock drafts. Now I am not saying you should draft Tony Romo over Drew Brees nor am I saying that the touchdowns do not matter. I am simply saying that across the board the only thing separating these two fantasy quarterbacks at great length is the number of touchdowns. Tony Romo clearly has the opportunity to throw more touchdowns, which has been made clear by his number of pass attempts. Half of fantasy football is a gamble; you are gambling that a certain player will outperform another player based on his position on draft day. It is unlikely that Tony Romo will outperform Drew Brees in 2013 but he does have the supporting cast around him to shine (Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten make up one of the league’s top receiving corps) and the numbers are close enough for me to take that gamble and grab another highly coveted skill position player on draft day. Fantasy football is all about value and risk/reward! The third round (which is where you will have to grab Drew Brees) has been yielding players like Jimmy Graham, Montee Ball, Darren Mcfadden, Randall Cobb and Larry Fitzgerald. Larry Fitzgerald is a monster and a former first round fantasy football draft pick, which leads me to player C - Carson Palmer. Carson Palmer is now paired with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. That dynamic duo is also paired with Bruce Arians. Bruce Arians is the same pass happy play caller that had Andrew Luck (a rookie in 2012) slinging the rock to the tune of 4,374 passing yards with 23 touchdowns. I realize that Carson Palmer’s 2012 numbers do not hold up against Drew Brees or Tony Romo but look at the supporting casts. Tony Romo had Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Drew Brees had Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Darren Sproles. Poor Carson had Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rod Streater. That trio is pedestrian at best compared to the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts. Carson Palmer is currently going as late as the 16th round in mock drafts.
If you want to draft a quarterback in the first three rounds of your fantasy draft you go right ahead, after all it is your fantasy football team. Someone like Drew Brees is sure to produce high octane fantasy numbers, but will your team be lacking elsewhere? I would rather roll with two quarterbacks from later rounds and retain my top 3 draft selections for skill positions with slimmer options heading into this season. If you go with the two players above one of them is likely to pan out. The moral of the story is spending a top 3 pick on a fantasy quarterback just is not necessary in 2013; there is far better value to be had in later rounds.
Still not sure which fantasy quarterback to target in 2013? Check out our 2013 preseason quarterback rankings or feel free to write in seven days a week for free fantasy football draft advice!